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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his state would not negociate connected its ballistic rocket program, rejecting a halfway U.S. request and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough deal.
He again warned successful an interrogation with Al Jazeera that Tehran, Iran, would people U.S. bases successful the Middle East if provoked, calling Iran’s rocket program "never negotiable."
The warnings came arsenic U.S. and Iranian negotiators met successful aboriginal February successful Oman, adjacent arsenic Washington continued to physique up subject forces crossed the portion — a posture U.S. officials accidental is meant to deter further escalation but which analysts reason besides underscores however acold isolated the 2 sides remain.
Despite the imbalance successful subject power, analysts accidental Iran believes it tin withstand U.S. unit by signaling greater resoluteness — and by betting that Washington’s appetite for warfare is limited.
TRUMP SAYS IRAN ALREADY HAS US TERMS AS MILITARY STRIKE CLOCK TICKS
While the U.S. possesses overwhelming subject capabilities, Defense Priorities expert Rosemary Kelanic said Iran is relying connected the logic of asymmetric conflict.
"One state is overmuch stronger, but the weaker state cares more," Kelanic said. "And historically, the state that cares much often wins by outlasting the stronger one."
"Iran is trying to awesome resoluteness arsenic powerfully arsenic it can, but it apt doubts U.S. resoluteness — due to the fact that from Tehran’s perspective, the stakes for Iran are existential, portion the stakes for the United States are not," she added.
Behnam Taleblu, a elder chap astatine the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Tehran’s superior leverage is its quality to endanger wider determination instability, adjacent if it cannot triumph a prolonged conflict.
"The Islamic Republic’s leverage is the menace of a region-wide war," Taleblu said, noting that portion U.S. and Israeli defenses could intercept astir attacks, "something volition get hit."
Analysts crossed the spectrum hold that Iran is utilizing negotiations little arsenic a way to compromise than arsenic a mode to hold decisive action.
Oren Kessler, expert astatine planetary consulting steadfast Wikistrat, said Iran is utilizing talks to stabilize its presumption internally portion avoiding concessions connected halfway information issues.
"Both sides privation a deal, but their reddish lines are precise hard for the different broadside to overcome," Kesler said. "The talks are going good successful the consciousness that they’re happening, but they’re not truly going anywhere."
Taleblu echoed that assessment, arguing that Tehran is treating diplomacy arsenic a shield alternatively than a solution.
"The authorities is treating negotiations arsenic a lifeline alternatively than a mode to resoluteness the halfway problem," helium said.
Taleblu added that Iran’s enactment sees talks arsenic a mode to deter a onslaught successful the abbreviated term, weaken home absorption successful the mean term, and yet unafraid sanctions alleviation to stabilize its economy.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted that limits connected Iran’s ballistic missiles indispensable beryllium portion of immoderate statement to debar subject action.
"At the extremity of the day, the United States is prepared to engage, and has ever been prepared to prosecute with Iran," Rubio said successful aboriginal February. "In bid for talks to really pb to thing meaningful, they volition person to see definite things, and that includes the scope of their ballistic missiles. That includes their sponsorship of violent organizations crossed the region. That includes the atomic program. And that includes the attraction of their ain people."
Anti-government protests opening astatine the commencement of 2026 led to a brutal crackdown successful Iran. The authorities has admitted to 3,117 deaths linked to the demonstrations, though quality rights groups and Iranian absorption organizations peg the decease toll arsenic overmuch higher.
The U.S. besides has demanded that Iran springiness up each enriched uranium stockpiles, which tin beryllium utilized for civilian vigor astatine debased levels but for atomic weapons astatine higher concentrations.
Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Iran is consenting to negociate connected nuclear issues but insisted enrichment is an "inalienable right" that "must continue."
"We are acceptable to scope a reassuring statement connected enrichment," helium said. "The Iranian atomic lawsuit volition lone beryllium resolved done negotiations."
Iran’s atomic main said Monday that Tehran would see diluting its 60% enriched uranium — a level adjacent to weapons-grade — but lone successful speech for the lifting of each sanctions.
As negotiations unfolded, the U.S. continued to grow its subject footprint successful the Middle East.
In precocious January, the U.S. dispatched a bearer onslaught radical centered connected the USS Abraham Lincoln to the North Arabian Sea, accompanied by aggregate destroyers and different naval assets. Additional F-15E onslaught craft and aerial defence systems person besides been repositioned astatine bases crossed the region, alongside thousands of U.S. troops.
Taleblu said the medication whitethorn beryllium utilizing diplomacy to bargain clip of its own.
"The charitable mentation is that the president is buying clip — moving assets, strengthening rocket defense, and preparing subject options," helium said. "The little charitable mentation is that the United States is taking Iran’s threats arsenic highly credible and inactive chasing the optics of a deal."
In 2025, 5 rounds of talks likewise stalled implicit U.S. demands that Iran wantonness enrichment wholly — talks that yet collapsed into Operation Midnight Hammer, a U.S.-led bombing campaign against Iranian atomic facilities.
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